Research

STATSWING publications

STATSWING publications are applied research on football decision-making: measurement frameworks, recruitment confidence, transfer prediction, and the mechanics that shape player assessment. They turn analytical gaps into usable methods for clubs, operators, and people trying to reason better about football decisions.


SW-R-2026-001 · March 2026 · 15 min

Contested Aerial Opportunities: Redefining How We Measure Aerial Play

Aerial duel statistics structurally miscount roughly 80% of contested aerial situations. This paper proposes a new measurement framework — Contested Aerial Opportunities — that captures what existing aerial-duel counts overlook.

Read at statswing.com

SW-R-2026-002 · March 2026 · 14 min

Epistemic Certainty in Recruitment: What Football's Confidence Infrastructure Conceals

Football's confidence infrastructure — the chain of metrics, models, shortlists, and recommendations behind a recruitment decision — has never been independently audited. This paper proposes an epistemic disclosure framework for the people who buy and use that infrastructure.

Read at statswing.com

SW-R-2026-003 · March 2026 · 12 min

The Execution Layer: Why Transfer Prediction Ignores Mechanics

Transfer prediction operates on a single analytical layer. Mechanics data exists — but the products that use it do not. This paper documents why the gap persists and what a mechanics-aware prediction stack would look like.

Read at statswing.com